E-MuSER (Enhanced Multiple Sclerosis Expected Rate): a technical improvement

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an idiopathic chronic inflammatory disease that strikes the Central Nervous System (CNS). Moreover, it is the most diffused disabling neurologic disease, in fact about 12 * 103 new diagnoses/year arise in the United States alone. It is clear that the development of a MS predictive system is necessary, in order to have a reliable biostatistics tool to forecast the incidence value with a significant degree of accuracy in both time and space. Since the reached prevision time was equal to 1 year (namely 2019), the model was ameliorated by unpacking the considered and refined time period. The theoretical MS incidence for 2023 in Italy was calculated to be 12.17% (± 2.04), with a theoretical accuracy of 99.35% (± 1.02). It can be stated E-MuSER (Enhanced Multiple Sclerosis Expected Rate) could reach a higher dependability degree, as well as theoretical accuracy, with the respect to the previous model. Its efficiency will be assessed at the end of year 2023.