Baseline and ongoing PET-derived factors predict detrimental effect or potential utility of 18F-FDG PET/CT (FDG-PET/CT) performed for surveillance in asymptomatic lymphoma patients in first remission.

Purpose: To identify both clinical and FDG PET/CT-derived factors predicting the occurrence of relapse, or conversely, the likelihood of false positive findings in surveillance FDG-PET/CT studies (PETsv). Methods: The study included 149 asymptomatic patients with Hodgkin's lymphoma (HL) (n = 55) or diffuse large B cell lymphoma (DLBCL) (n = 94) in first remission. PETSv studies were performed 12, 18, 24 and 36 months thereafter. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify clinical and imaging-derived predictors of either PET-detected relapse or false-positive (FP) results. Tested clinical variables were: 1) age, 2) HL vs. DLBCL, 3) stage of disease, 4) bulky disease, 5) previous radiotherapy. PET/CT-derived variables were: 1) maximum standardized uptake value at baseline, 2) size-incorporated maximum standardized uptake value (SIMaxSUV) at baseline, 3) positive interim PET(PET-2), 4) presence of hot spots likely to be unrelated to the disease in final PET, 5) residual non-FDG avid mass. Results: Accuracy was 88 % for PETsv1, 95 % for PETsv2, 95 % for PETsv3 and 91 % for PETsv4. However, PPV was relatively low in all PETsv. Best predictors of relapse were result of interim PET, HL versus NHL type, SIMaxSUV, age ≥ 60. Best predictors of FP were previous radiotherapy and hot spots unrelated to the disease in final PET. Conclusions: The present study confirms the need of restricting the use of surveillance PET/CT to patients at high risk of relapse. Information derived from PET/CT performed at baseline (metabolic disease burden), in the course (PET2) and at the end of therapy (unrelated hot spots) can help to select high-risk patients and also to identify patients more likely to present equivocal findings at PETsv.