Jordan Recurrent Neural Network vs. IHACRES in modelling daily streamflow

A study of possible scenarios for modelling streamflow data from daily time series, using artificial neural networks (ANNs), is presented. Particular emphasis is devoted to the reconstruction of drought periods where water resource management and control are most critical. This paper considers two connectionist models: a feedforward multilayer perceptron (MLP) and a Jordan recurrent neural network (JNN), comparing network performance on real world data from two small catchments (192 and 69 km2 in size) with irregular and torrential regimes. Several network configurations are tested to ensure a good combination of input features (rainfall and previous streamflow data) that capture the variability of the physical processes at work. Tapped delayed line (TDL) and memory effect techniques are introduced to recognize and reproduce temporal dependence. Results show a poor agreement when using TDL only, but a remarkable improvement can be obtained with JNN and its memory effect procedures, which are able to reproduce the system memory over a catchment in a more effective way. Furthermore, the IHACRES conceptual model, which relies on both rainfall and temperature input data, is introduced for comparative study. The results suggest that when good input data is unavailable, metric models perform better than conceptual ones and, in general, it is difficult to justify substantial conceptualization of complex processes.