A model for energy predictions and diagnostics of large-scale photovoltaic systems based on electric data and thermal imaging of the PV fields

The aim of this investigation is the development of robust models for the performance prediction and automatic monitoring of large photovoltaic systems, based on historical and real-time electric and thermal data. This issue is increasingly important due to the worldwide diffusion of large photovoltaic systems and their need to identify and predict failures and malfunctions, in order to promptly assess the convenience of maintenance actions. The present model describes the response to irradiance and temperature conditions of both modules and inverters and also it is able to predict shading conditions able to affect the energy yield. The model has been validated against real electric measurements in 6 large PV plants located in southern Italy and it demonstrated to be able to predict the real time power production within a 4.1 % error. Even more importantly, the model and its comparison with subhourly measurements over several years has demonstrated its effectiveness in detecting downtime conditions caused by inverter or string problems. Simulations and measurements revealed that missed energy production due to electrical grid coupling downtime can exceed 50 % on certain days and that the shading conditions (up to 5 % of the daily energy production) can be easily detected and separated from component problems, thus avoiding false alarms. Finally, the analysis of aerial infrared images allowed to further test the model in failure detection capability, assess the relationship between thermal anomalies and underperformance conditions and in predicting the yearly deterioration rate at the PV plants.