Sea-level change and the supralittoral environment: Potential impact on a splashpool habitat on the Ligurian coast (NW Mediterranean)

Climate change is one of the primary causes of habitat modification in a wide range of environments. Great effort is being made in coastal environments to understand and forecast the potential effects of such processes, with Sea-Level Rise (SLR) being one of the most studied phenomena. This paper discusses the potential effects of various 2100 sea-level scenarios on greenhouse gas mitigation policies (Representative Concentration Pathways - RCPs). This research was carried out on a supralittoral habitat in Genova (Ligurian Sea) and covered an eventual change in environmental conditions caused by SLR, which could impact the resident Culicid Acartomyia mariae. The XBeach model was used to simulate the wave run-up caused by the various RCPs and to infer SLR effects on the A. mariae life cycle; the results were combined with data from field surveys. The model outputs revealed a variation in wave run-up oscillations under common wave conditions, which could affect the supralittoral area in terms of water input and hydric balance, as well as the A. mariae life cycle, which is temperature and salinity dependent.