A methodology for the long-term simulation and uncertainty analysis of the operational lifetime performance of wave energy converter arrays

This work presents a new methodology for the long-term simulation and uncertainty analysis of the performance of different alternatives of wave energy converter arrays. With it, we can analyze complete operational lifetime time-series of energy production for any type of wave energy converter. The methodology is based on the application of cutting edge methods, including complex wave climate simulations, downscaling techniques, numerical wave propagation and the application of Monte Carlo techniques for the uncertainty analysis of the results. The methodology was applied to arrays of 9 overtopping wave energy converters for which 9 different geometric alternatives were defined. Results of the mean energy available for the experiments carried out with Monte Carlo techniques indicate that the arrow-shaped array with a distance between devices of 6 times their diameter is the alternative in which more energy is produced. However, the results for some of the 500 experiments indicate that a different alternative is the one with the highest potential production, revealing that the most likely outcome of the experiments can be different from the hindcast results. These results highlight that simulations provide much more information for the decision-makers and that an uncertainty analysis is key towards optimizing energy production.