The Road to Strategic Autonomy: Reflections from the Russia-Ukraine War

Since 2016, the European Union (EU)'s ambitions to become more autonomous from the U.S. have sparked intensified debate. Academics hold contrasting perspectives on the EU’s potential for achieving strategic autonomy. The prevailing view suggests that the EU’s road to strategic autonomy is hindered by two main challenges: strategic cacophony – i.e., the presence of continent-wide divergences across national threat perceptions – and severe military capacity shortfalls. The Ukrainian war acts as a proving ground to explore the consistency of these assertions, as the EU reacted to a conventional military threat to its security. In this article, we analyse in detail the EU's response to the conflict, with a focus on three key aspects: the initiatives undertaken by both the EU and individual member states aimed at undermining Russia and supporting Ukraine; the public opinion's stance on major issues concerning the war; and the adaptation of military policies. Across all these facets, the article analyses cross-country and cross-time variations. The initial analysis reveals that the strategic cacophony persists but has not prevented the EU from implementing a substantially cohesive response to the war, at least for now. Regarding military deficit, the analysis shows that many European countries, especially in the South, have not reacted by addressing their military capabilities shortfalls. The article contributes to the debate on the strategic autonomy of the EU by providing empirical analysis that allows for robust assessment of the leading hypotheses developed within this scholarly discourse.