What makes paradigms last? A study of defense policy change in Germany and Italy (1989–2022)

Policy ideas are often crafted in international fora, such as international organisations, multilateral institutions, and high-level summits. However, whether and how ideas will eventually inform policymakers at the domestic level remains an understudied subject. This paper contributes to this debate by tracing the domestic consolidation and eventual erosion of 'Crisis Management', a policy paradigm that emerged after the end of the Cold War and became dominant among NATO members in the 2010s. We investigate Germany and Italy as two case studies that followed two distinct trajectories. Policy elites suddenly adopted the paradigm in Italy and built a broad consensus on it. In Germany, crisis management has emerged lately and remains contested, as the territorial defense has maintained legitimacy among elites. Understanding the mechanisms underpinning such trajectories is the key to uncovering whether a consensus on a new version of territorial defense as a dominant paradigm will consolidate.