Which natural or anthropogenic variables influence natural capital? An Italian case study

Coastal marine ecosystems are among the most productive ecosystems worldwide, providing essential resources both for the environment itself and for human life. This is the case of the Ligurian Sea, rich in marine biodiversity that characterizes a valuable natural capital that has, however, been damaged by the development of human activities along the coast leading to a decline of this biodiversity and health status of coastal ecosystems. This study analyzes the relationships between the distribution of natural capital and environmental flows values of Ligurian marine coastal habitats, and the natural and anthropogenic variables located along the coast. These variables may influence the capacity of the environment to generate and maintain the natural capital and affect, either directly or indirectly, positively or negatively, its spatial distribution together with that of the environmental flows. These relationships were analyzed using the Random Forest technique, subsequently compared with information from interviews administered to experts in the marine coastal field. Both methods showed that the anthropogenic variables have a greater influence on values’ distribution if compared with the natural ones, with a positive effect (namely the settlement of protection measures) showed as an increase in natural capital and environmental flows values, confirming how protection regimes (e.g., anchoring ban and establishment of Special Zones of Conservation) could be crucial for managing and conserving natural capital. This study links the status of natural capital and environmental flows along the coast to the presence of a set of variables, in order to operate on them for a better monitoring and management of the area, as well as a sustainable development.