Applicability of two different validated models to predict axillary non-sentinel lymph node status by sentinel node biopsy in a single Italian center

Background: The necessity of complete axillary lymph node dissection (CALND) after sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) for women with sentinel lymph node metastases is a matter of debate because non-sentinel lymph nodes after CALND contain no further metastases in about 50 % of cases. Our study aims to determine the applicability in our setting of two different validated nomograms to predict axillary lymph node status after SLNB. Methods: We collected data about all women who underwent SLNB in our Department of Surgery from 2007 to 2010, focusing on tumor, patient, and breast characteristics. Data was analyzed by R (version 2.15.2); p < 0.05 was considered significant. Results: Among 511 women who underwent SLNB, 126 received CALND due to sentinel lymph node metastasis, and 73.0 % of these had no further metastatic non-sentinel lymph node. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) nomogram and the Tenon score were 78.5 % (95 % CI 70.1–86.8 %) and 77.0 % (95 % CI 67.9–86.0 %) (p = 0.678), respectively. Conclusions: Both the MSKCC nomogram and the Tenon score were predictive for the axillary non-sentinel lymph node status by SLNB. The MSKCC nomogram was the more accurate of the two and the Tenon score was the easier one to apply.