Impact of electric cars deployment on the Italian energy system

Electric vehicles are supposed to play a leading role in the transition towards a low carbon society since they allow to substitute oil products with electricity as the main energy source for transportation. On the other hand, the diffusion of electric vehicles determines an increase in power demand with a consequent variation in the power supply mix. In accordance with this, it is mandatory to analyse how the supply mix changes, since the introduction of electric vehicles is significant from the sustainability point of view only if there is a reduction in emissions. To assess this condition for the Italian energy system, the present paper proposes a model developed in EnergyPLAN. Three different scenarios are tested in terms of the penetration of electric vehicles to understand which is the optimal trajectory for their diffusion. The analysis demonstrates that the Italian energy system can accommodate 7 million electric cars, namely about 25% of the total in 2040. A higher amount would determine an increase in carbon emissions.