Species-specific distribution model may be not enough: The case study of bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) habitat distribution in Pelagos Sanctuary

Geospatial models are used to predict the distribution of terrestrial and marine species, according to their ecological and ethological habits. The bottlenose dolphin is a cosmopolitan marine top predator, inhabiting most of the ocean, with the exception of polar and subpolar waters. This wide distribution is associated with a remarkable plasticity in ecological and behavioural habits, which makes it difficult to model and predict its distribution. This study proposes a ‘multi-type approach’ to predict the presence and distribution of the bottlenose dolphin in the Pelagos Sanctuary, a Specially Protected Area of Mediterranean Importance located in the north-west Mediterranean Sea. A multi-type model based on random forest regression was developed, analysing the distribution habits of two geographical units living in the Pelagos area. When compared with a classical single-type model, the multi-type model performed much better in a prediction test (true skill statistics, TSS = 85% vs. 52%), confirming the value of this experimental approach. This work suggests that wild species should not be considered as one single-type entity, as local specialization may change and shape their distribution habits.