Detecting anticipatory design strategies: the case of asylum policy in Italy

For decades, the academic literature on migration policy change suggested that migration policies in Western Europe had become overall more liberal. Yet, in an age of strong polarization, highly institutionalized policy regimes are likely to change. Adopting the theoretical lens of policy feedback literature, this paper argues that a better grasp of policy dynamics in the field of migration requires a more nuanced definition of the policy. Namely, we contend that the stability of liberal arrangements constitutes only an apparent paradox. Indeed, disentangling paradigms and instruments may enable different patterns of change and stability to emerge, as well as the role of agency. We build this argument using Italian reception policy as the case for a theory-building study on the drivers of change and stability of asylum policy regimes. Our study also suggests the benefits of applying a micro-level analysis to uncover agent-based mechanisms of policy entrenchment.