Evaluation of Seismic Risk on UNESCO Cultural Heritage sites in Europe

Earthquakes have been responsible for the destruction of hundreds of monuments throughout human history. Due to their size, conservation state, and lack of seismic provisions, monuments are particularly vulnerable to the effects of geological hazards. The first step toward the mitigation of the earthquake threat consists of understanding the existing seismic risk and evaluating possible strategies to reduce it. This study presents a simplified assessment to evaluate the probability of damage due to ground shaking on UNESCO World Heritage cultural sites throughout Europe. The seismic hazard model (SHARE) has been employed to derive hazard curves, which were combined with a fragility model to calculate the annual probability of damage or collapse. These calculations were performed assuming different soil conditions, and the resulting risk metrics can be used for risk awareness, to inform the prioritization of the sites in need of structural interventions, and to support additional risk analysis.