The accident probability estimation and the consequence analysis are based on statistical data about oil spill accident occurrence in the Mediterranean area, on the probability of different release sizes, and on the joint probability of wind speed and directions. The risk model and its evaluation have been assessed for the Mediterranean littoral considering the time required by the oil slick to hit the coast in specific sensible target points assuming that an oil release accident potentially occurred in an accident sites located along the ship routes. This approach has been applied on the area of the Strait of Gibraltar, which supports a significant volume of maritime traffic because it represents the navigational connection channel between the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea.
Coastal risk modelling for oil spill in the mediterranean sea
Soussi A.;Bersani C.;Sacile R.;
2020-01-01
Abstract
The accident probability estimation and the consequence analysis are based on statistical data about oil spill accident occurrence in the Mediterranean area, on the probability of different release sizes, and on the joint probability of wind speed and directions. The risk model and its evaluation have been assessed for the Mediterranean littoral considering the time required by the oil slick to hit the coast in specific sensible target points assuming that an oil release accident potentially occurred in an accident sites located along the ship routes. This approach has been applied on the area of the Strait of Gibraltar, which supports a significant volume of maritime traffic because it represents the navigational connection channel between the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea.
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