A tool for the assessment of the potential benefits of electric and hybrid cars for emissions reduction in urban areas

A simulation tool was developed to evaluate variations in exhaust emissions from cars when replacing conventional powertrains with electric or hybrid propulsion systems. The model permits calculation of direct emissions (released at the vehicles’ exhaust) and indirect emissions (released when producing electricity for batteries recharging). To verify model outputs, a reference scenario was defined selecting the urban area of Genoa, Italy, considering the number of vehicles and mileage of eight vehicle categories. A simulated scenario was then designed, replacing cars belonging to older legally defined classes with electric and hybrid ones. Significant reductions were estimated for regulated pollutants, with higher benefits estimated for CO and NOX emissions, deriving from calculated reductions and contributions of cars in the reference scenario. No advantages were estimated for CO2, outlining that a change in the national mix for electricity production is also required.