This work proposes a method to model, predict and simulate shipboard electric load power profiles for specific users in order to overcomes the limitations encountered with traditional methods applied at the design phase of the ship. A probabilistic characterization of the user's operating modes is proposed combined with a stochastic process called Hidden Markov Model (HMM) in order to model and simulate the load power profiles. Main inputs for the user's characterization are the initial state π of every user, the state transition probability matrix A i,j and, finally, the corresponding emissions at each operating state e i . All these inputs can be derived by the traditional information available from the electrical power load analysis (EPLA) or by experimental readings obtained through field measurements performed on-board ships. The method has been applied, tested and validated on a typical on-board laundry service of which experimental readings are available. The simulation of the load power profile shows a significant accuracy if compared with the recorder data (e.g. a mean absolute percentage error equal to the 11.1%).

A Stochastic Approach to Shipboard Electric Loads Power Modeling and Simulation

Boveri A.;D'agostino F.;Gualeni P.;Neroni D.;Silvestro F.
2018-01-01

Abstract

This work proposes a method to model, predict and simulate shipboard electric load power profiles for specific users in order to overcomes the limitations encountered with traditional methods applied at the design phase of the ship. A probabilistic characterization of the user's operating modes is proposed combined with a stochastic process called Hidden Markov Model (HMM) in order to model and simulate the load power profiles. Main inputs for the user's characterization are the initial state π of every user, the state transition probability matrix A i,j and, finally, the corresponding emissions at each operating state e i . All these inputs can be derived by the traditional information available from the electrical power load analysis (EPLA) or by experimental readings obtained through field measurements performed on-board ships. The method has been applied, tested and validated on a typical on-board laundry service of which experimental readings are available. The simulation of the load power profile shows a significant accuracy if compared with the recorder data (e.g. a mean absolute percentage error equal to the 11.1%).
2018
978-1-5386-4192-7
File in questo prodotto:
File Dimensione Formato  
ESARS_2018.pdf

accesso chiuso

Tipologia: Altro materiale allegato
Dimensione 734.95 kB
Formato Adobe PDF
734.95 kB Adobe PDF   Visualizza/Apri   Richiedi una copia

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11567/955425
Citazioni
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.pmc??? ND
  • Scopus 3
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.isi??? 1
social impact