Probabilistic seismic damage scenario by mechanical models: the case study of Sulmona (Italy)

This paper carries out the damage assessment of the town of Sulmona (AQ, Italy) by mechanical models and non linear static procedures (through over-damped capacity spectra) The buildings are grouped into homogeneous classes, derived from the Istat Census, each characterized by a selected number of mechanical, geometrical parameters and loads, defined in terms of statistical moments. The municipality is partitioned into uniform hazard zones and seismic response spectra are characterized by mean values and percentiles. Referring to a number of random limit states, fragility curves and damage scenarios are evaluated taking into account the actual uncertainties of the structural capacity, seismic demand and other inherent randomness. For the case study, the expected damage level results to be relevant.