A stochastic approach to identify supply requirements, at an aircraft assembly plant, with respect to the MPS and production policies.

In this paper Authors describe the use of simulation in addressing interrelated issues such as final product due date determination, supply requirements, suppliers relationship management, work centre loading and work-in-process control in a complex assembly environment such as an aircraft firm. This is not a study focused on some improvement or creation of planning algorithms; Authors don't mean to replace existing management methodologies, such as supply or expediting practices, but to provide an high level framework in which a backward loading of the whole supply-chain is reliable. By using the stochastic approach, the main aim of this work is to analyze a complex process in order to identify and quantify the nature of the risk involved in the supply chain process, evaluating the possible consequences associated with it, since events with a low probability of occurring might generate just as unfavorable and problematic consequences on the whole final assembly process. Thus, instead of an absolutely certain result, there will be, in general, possible supply and production processes solutions, and each one has its own given probability of occurring. This application also illustrates the use of simulation for some simplified planning and scheduling needs using a system of interacting and interconnected schedulers and simulators.