Modeling Flood Displacement Dynamics: Integrating Household Characteristics and Assessing Policy Implications. A study in the Khartoum State, Sudan

The frequency and intensity of floods in the IGAD region in East Africa have increased over the years due to climate variability and change. Among its Member States, Sudan is one of the most affected by floods, causing severe damage to buildings and loss of livelihood. These events continue to displace thousands of people in the country every year. In response to this challenge, the design and implementation of effective flood risk mitigation measures, taking into account both physical and socioeconomic standpoints, is of paramount importance. An innovative agent-based model (ABM) designed to simulate the behavior of autonomous household entities over various 30-year hazard and policy scenarios in eight locations in the Khartoum State, Sudan. The ABM reflects real-world characteristics of households, simulates probabilistic flood scenarios, and tests possible policy interventions. Policies, tested both individually and in combination, include the Early Warning System, the Awareness Programme, the Basic Income Programme, the House Repair Programme, and the Build Back Better Programme. Their impact is evaluated in terms of the number of pre-flood evacuated households, post-flood evacuated households, immobile households, and their maximum displacement duration over 30-year scenarios. The aim of the research is to contribute to the ongoing discourse on methods to assess and reduce flood displacement risk, foster local resilience to floods, and implement effective intervention measures for the context under consideration. It provides a methodological tool that can be adapted for use in different contexts to inform policymakers and stakeholders, and support them in making evidence-based decisions.