L'agriculture face au défi du changement climatique : impacts, risques, politiques d'adaptation et perspectives du mouvement migratoire forcé vers l'Italie. Cas de la Tassaout Aval

Migration and climate change are among the most important challenges facing the world today. They are linked because climate change can stimulate or hinder migration. One of the sectors heavily affected by climate change is agriculture. Climate change can affect agricultural productivity due to its impact on average temperatures and precipitation patterns on the one hand, and the fact that it increases the frequency and intensity of climate shocks on the other. Droughts and water scarcity are important drivers of land degradation, which in turn negatively impacts resource-dependent rural populations and can potentially lead to livelihood losses and subsequent forced migration to less affected areas. The links between the effects of climate change on agriculture and migration are complex, as they occur in a broader context of interactions at multiple scales of socio-economic, political, demographic and environmental processes. We find that negative shocks to agricultural productivity caused by climate fluctuations significantly increase emigration. These results are robust to the definitions of the sample of the study area and to several alternative verifications and explanations suggested by the literature.