Temporal pattern detection in time-varying graphical models

Graphical models allow to describe the interplay among variables of a system through a compact representation, suitable when relations evolve over time. For example, in a biological setting, genes interact differently depending on external environmental or metabolic factors. To incorporate this dynamics a viable strategy is to estimate a sequence of temporally related graphs assuming similarity among samples in different time points. While adjacent time points may direct the analysis towards a robust estimate of the underlying graph, the resulting model will not incorporate long-term or recurrent temporal relationships. In this work we propose a dynamical network inference model that leverages on kernels to consider general temporal patterns (such as circadian rhythms or seasonality). We show how our approach may also be exploited when the recurrent patterns are unknown, by coupling the network inference with a clustering procedure that detects possibly non-consecutive similar networks. Such clusters are then used to build similarity kernels. The convexity of the functional is determined by whether we impose or infer the kernel. In the first case, the optimisation algorithm exploits efficiently proximity operators with closed-form solutions. In the other case, we resort to an alternating minimisation procedure which jointly learns the temporal kernel and the underlying network. Extensive analysis on synthetic data shows the efficacy of our models compared to state-of-the-art methods. Finally, we applied our approach on two real-world applications to show how considering long-term patterns is fundamental to have insights on the behaviour of a complex system.