A Modal Choice Model for Evaluating the Impact of Increasing Automation in Container Terminals

The aim of this paper is to define a model for the modal choice between road and rail transport taking into account the increase of rail attractiveness resulting from the increasing of the number of container terminals equipped with automated handling systems. The considered automated handling system is the automated multilevel handling system developed within the RCMS EU project, that is, a multistory storage building, equipped with electric AGVs, remote controlled elevators and remote controlled ceiling cranes. This automated system makes possible to access to a specific container without the necessity of reshuffling and to load/unload containers to/from trucks and trains directly under the storage structure, allowing a significant reduction of the loading/unloading time. In order to define the modal choice model, the systematic utility and the perceived utility are provided and the flows of freight delivered via rail or via road are determined with a binomial Logit model. Moreover, the threshold distance between seaport and inland terminals beyond which automation has a significant impact on modal split is evaluated. As a case study, a European port hinterland network is considered and some scenarios are analyzed, assuming that an increasing number of terminals introduces automation. The paper shows that the introduction of automation in container terminals has significant consequences on modal split. In particular, as the number of automated terminals increases, the rail mode becomes more competitive and the threshold distance between seaport and inland terminals, at which the modal split is equally distributed between road and rail modes, significantly decreases.