Fachkräftebedarf in DeutschlandZur kurz- und langfristigen Entwicklung von Fachkräfteangebot und -nachfrage, Arbeitslosigkeit und Zuwanderung

IAB assumes that the labour, capital and goods markets will adjust themselves to the drop in the supply of labour at least in the long term. For this reason it is not sensible to forecast "a gap in skilled labour" - of any size whatsoever. Having said that, a mis-match may come about on the labour market in respect to certain qualifications,cupations or regions and this may mean that vacant jobs cannot be filled in many la-bour market segments. After the Hartz reforms, the tensions on the labour market increased markedly during the economic upturn of the years 2006/07 and 2010/11. At the end of 2012, the de-mand for labour declined slightly in the wake of the weak economy but nevertheless shortages continue to be visible in individual regions and fields of work. At the end of 2012, the economic situation in Germany had become cloudy under the pull of the Euro crisis. However, for 2013, a recovery is to be expected. The labour market will be able to pick up again, even if it is not able to live up to the old trend. At the same time, employment ought to develop somewhat more favourably than unemployment. The Euro crisis has led to a redirection of the migration flows, especially those from central and eastern European countries to Germany. In 2011 the net immigration of foreign citizens amounted to 279,000 persons; for 2012 a net immigration of 340,000 to 380,000 persons is to be expected. This high level is surely due to the positive la-bour market development in Germany and the comparatively poor situation in the European crisis states. In the mid- and long term, immigration from other EU states will drop. The largest potential for immigration lies with the third countries. If participation in employment continues to rise, the labour force potential in Germany will drop at a net immigration of 100,000 persons by 7.3 million by 2035 and at a net immigration of 200,000 persons by 5.4 million persons. This decrease must not be confused with "a gap in skilled labour". In order to ensure the sustainable development of the labour force potential in Ger-many, an active strategy towards the mobilisation of domestic potential is necessary, especially of women and older persons, but also the targeted recruitment of qualified skilled workers from abroad along with their integration into the labour market. Immi-gration from third countries in particular would have to be higher if a drop in the labour force potential is to be clearly limited.