Application of statistical analysis to estimate the coastal hazard. A case study in Liguria region

Liguria Region is totally exposed to the action of the sea storms and too the natural evolution of the profile of the shoreline. The modification along the time of the shape of the shoreface is measured from the official administrative and technical offices of the Liguria Region and Italian Environmental Ministry, this information is available in shape format starting from 1944. The phenomenon of coastal flood produces a direct damage represented by the loss of soil and an indirect damage correlated to the impact on tourism activity, social aspects, and damage to heritage buildings. In recent years another type of damage source must be considered, and this is the phenomenon of the increasing of the mean sea water level, known as Sea Level Rise (SLR). It is necessary to introduce this phenomenon in the hazard analysis and this is a direct and known consequence of the climate change. Results from the hazard index encompass both the relative magnitude of erosion and/or coastal flooding, and the probability that these hazards may occur based on the distribution of the index using different scenarios. The paper analyzes a Liguria case study in which the effects of SLR is particularly critical in terms of heritage and economic and social activities hazard.