Effect on the energy market of the potential switching to heat pumps for space heating

The main subject of this work is to understand what could happen in the Italian electricity market if a given share of building heating demand had switched from gas to electricity heating devices. The objective is to define the optimal share to switch in terms of minimization of environmental (CO2) emissions. The effects of such switching on the national energy system are analyzed from the financial point of view, depending also on the heating habits of final users. An hourly simulation of the electricity market has been performed by means of a bid stack model (BIDSM) developed at University of Genoa, calculating market prices, power plant generation typology, fuel consumption and global CO2 emissions. All the data are averaged on a national basis and results are reported for two different time schedule of heating requirements of the final users. In each case, the total energy consumption is fixed, and local "degree days" and location energy needs are considered. It seems that the use of heat pumps for building heating is a real option and that the user habits has a little impact on optimal share of switching from gas to heat pumps, at least concerning CO2 emission minimization.