Probabilistic approach to Life Cycle Analysis of structures including earthquake effects: first discussion on a case study

A number of comparative LCA studies on structural systems mainly focus on the use of alternative building materials, without taking into account possible damage resulting from extreme events throughout their life cycle. The present study not only analyzes environmental impacts related to the choice of the structural system and its implications but also aims at investigating the consequences of structural damage from exceptional events (e.g. earthquakes) in a life cycle perspective, including maintenance and/or demolition and reconstruction of the building. This study suggests possible actions to optimize structural systems in terms of environmental sustainability according to the Life Cycle Thinking approach. The LCA analysis compares the environmental impacts of the three alternative structural solutions in terms of primary energy and CO2 equivalent emissions. In particular, the study aims at investigating how the life-cycle environmental impact of the three structures changes according to their structural performance in the damage limit state and the limit state of collapse, considering their service life on probabilistic basis (50 years). In this paper, the overall methodology, as well as main issues arising from the on-going analysis, are discussed.