Google Trends (GT) was mined from 2004 to 2015, searching for West-Nile virus disease (WNVD) in Italy. GT-generated data were modeled as a time series and were analyzed using classical time series analyses. In particular, correlation between GT-based Relative Search Volumes (RSVs) related to WNVD and "real-world" epidemiological cases in the same study period resulted r=0.76 (p<0.0001) on a monthly basis and r=0.80 (p<0.0001) on a yearly basis. The partial autocorrelation analysis and the spectral analysis confirmed that a 1-year regular pattern could be detected. Correlation between GT-based RSVs related to WNVD yielded a r=0.54 (p<0.05) on a regional basis. Summarizing, GT-generated data concerning WNVD well correlated with epidemiology and could be exploited for complementing traditional surveillance.
Infodemiological data of West-Nile virus disease in Italy in the study period 2004-2015
BRAGAZZI, NICOLA LUIGI;Bacigaluppi, Susanna;ROBBA, CHIARA;SIRI, ANNA;
2016-01-01
Abstract
Google Trends (GT) was mined from 2004 to 2015, searching for West-Nile virus disease (WNVD) in Italy. GT-generated data were modeled as a time series and were analyzed using classical time series analyses. In particular, correlation between GT-based Relative Search Volumes (RSVs) related to WNVD and "real-world" epidemiological cases in the same study period resulted r=0.76 (p<0.0001) on a monthly basis and r=0.80 (p<0.0001) on a yearly basis. The partial autocorrelation analysis and the spectral analysis confirmed that a 1-year regular pattern could be detected. Correlation between GT-based RSVs related to WNVD yielded a r=0.54 (p<0.05) on a regional basis. Summarizing, GT-generated data concerning WNVD well correlated with epidemiology and could be exploited for complementing traditional surveillance.
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