Use of SERTS (Socio-Economic, health Resources and Technologic Supplies) models to estimate cancer survival at provincial geographical level.

Abstract AIM: The main aim of this work is to compute expected cancer survival for Italian provinces by Socio-Economic and health Resources and Technologic Supplies (SERTS) models, based on demographic, socioeconomic variables and information describing the health care system (SEH). METHODS: Five-year age-standardised relative survival rates by gender for 11 cancer sites and all cancers combined of patients diagnosed in 1995-1999, were obtained from the Italian Association of Cancer Registries (CRs) database. The SEH variables describe at provincial level macro-economy, demography, labour market, health resources in 1995-2005. A principal components factor analysis was applied to the SEH variables to control their strong mutual correlation. For every considered cancer site, linear regression models were estimated considering the 5-RS% as dependent variable and the principal components factors of the SEH variables as independent variables. RESULTS: The model composition was correlated to the characteristics of take in charge of patients. SEH factors were correlated with the observed survival for all cancer combined and colon-rectum in both sexes, prostate, kidney and non Hodgkin's lymphomas in men, breast, corpus uteri and melanoma in women (R(2) from 40% to 85%). In the provinces without any CR the survival was very similar with that of neighbouring provinces with analogous social, economic and health characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: The SERTS models allowed us to interpret the survival outcome of oncologic patients with respect to the role of the socio-economic and health related system characteristics, stressing how the peculiarities of the take in charge at the province level could address the decisions regarding the allocation of resources.