Objective: To identify the existence of a correlation among the various organs affected, focusing primarily on immuno-dermatological aspects, and to create a risk prediction model of organ-specific complications. Material and Methods: Fifty-two patients with stable scleroderma, followed between 2015 and 2019, were investigated through an extensive multidisciplinary evaluation in the last year. Results: Patients with lung involvement presented a worse degree of skin fibrosis than patients without it (p <0.001). No relationship was observed for the heart, kidney, and esophagus. Patients with pulmonary involvement had a lower pressure of the low esophagus sphincter and a higher Warrick score than patients without it (p <0.05). Age was significantly higher in patients with kidney involvement. Diffuse scleroderma patients had a worse pulmonary impairment than limited scleroderma patients (p <0.05). The manometric “sclerodermic” pattern was observed to be the most frequent (55.6%, p <0.05) in dcSSc patients while the sclerodermic and normal pattern were equally represented (41.2 and 32.4% respectively, p <0.05) in lcSSc patients. When compared to the negative serological groups, anti-Scl-70 positive patients presented a worse lung involvement while anti-centromere patients presented a better lung outcome (p <0.05). PM-Scl 100/75 positive patients presented mostly a pulmonary fibrotic pattern (p <0.05) and, also, heart complications were more likely associated with anti PM-Scl 100/75 positivity (p <0.05). The risk prediction model for organ-specific complications had an accuracy of 84.4% (95%CI 78, 89) in complication-site prediction, AUC of 0.871, 86% of sensitivity, and 83% of specificity, Cohen’s Kappa (k) of 0.68. Conclusions: Out of all the organs studied, the skin is the one that correlates with the lung. Patients with a diffuse form of disease presented more frequently the anti Scl-70 antibody and had a worse lung and esophageal involvement (scleroderma pattern) than the negative group. Conversely, patients with limited disease presented all positive for the anti-centromere antibody with a better lung involvement than the negative group, without any difference among the esophageal manometric pattern. Anti PM-Scl 100/75 antibody patients were associated with pulmonary fibrosis and presented cardiac involvement. The model created has demonstrated excellent values of sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy, but further studies are needed for validation.
Correlation Between Skin and Affected Organs in 52 Sclerodermic Patients Followed in a Diseases Management Team: Development of a Risk Prediction Model of Organ-Specific Complications
Cozzani E.;Muracchioli A.;Murdaca G.;Beccalli M.;Zentilin P.;Ameri P.;Russo R.;Carmisciano L.;
2021-01-01
Abstract
Objective: To identify the existence of a correlation among the various organs affected, focusing primarily on immuno-dermatological aspects, and to create a risk prediction model of organ-specific complications. Material and Methods: Fifty-two patients with stable scleroderma, followed between 2015 and 2019, were investigated through an extensive multidisciplinary evaluation in the last year. Results: Patients with lung involvement presented a worse degree of skin fibrosis than patients without it (p <0.001). No relationship was observed for the heart, kidney, and esophagus. Patients with pulmonary involvement had a lower pressure of the low esophagus sphincter and a higher Warrick score than patients without it (p <0.05). Age was significantly higher in patients with kidney involvement. Diffuse scleroderma patients had a worse pulmonary impairment than limited scleroderma patients (p <0.05). The manometric “sclerodermic” pattern was observed to be the most frequent (55.6%, p <0.05) in dcSSc patients while the sclerodermic and normal pattern were equally represented (41.2 and 32.4% respectively, p <0.05) in lcSSc patients. When compared to the negative serological groups, anti-Scl-70 positive patients presented a worse lung involvement while anti-centromere patients presented a better lung outcome (p <0.05). PM-Scl 100/75 positive patients presented mostly a pulmonary fibrotic pattern (p <0.05) and, also, heart complications were more likely associated with anti PM-Scl 100/75 positivity (p <0.05). The risk prediction model for organ-specific complications had an accuracy of 84.4% (95%CI 78, 89) in complication-site prediction, AUC of 0.871, 86% of sensitivity, and 83% of specificity, Cohen’s Kappa (k) of 0.68. Conclusions: Out of all the organs studied, the skin is the one that correlates with the lung. Patients with a diffuse form of disease presented more frequently the anti Scl-70 antibody and had a worse lung and esophageal involvement (scleroderma pattern) than the negative group. Conversely, patients with limited disease presented all positive for the anti-centromere antibody with a better lung involvement than the negative group, without any difference among the esophageal manometric pattern. Anti PM-Scl 100/75 antibody patients were associated with pulmonary fibrosis and presented cardiac involvement. The model created has demonstrated excellent values of sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy, but further studies are needed for validation.
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